June 23, 2024


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Heat vs. Mavericks line, picks: Advanced computer NBA model releases selections for Tuesday matchup

The Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks face off in a cross-conference showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Miami is favored by 2.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 209.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Heat vs. Mavericks picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model finished up almost $600 on its top-rated picks last season and enters Week 3 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 106-71 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model knows the Heat are enjoying big-time success to begin the season. Miami has the NBA’s best net rating, outpacing opponents by 16.5 points per 100 possessions. The Heat have the best defensive efficiency in the NBA, allowing 103 points or fewer in every game. Miami is dominant on the glass on both ends of the floor, with potent on-ball defense and tremendous scheme versatility. The Heat also have high-end shot creators in Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, with the ability to protect the paint defensively.

The model also knows the Mavericks have the best offensive creator in this game in Luka Doncic. The fourth-year perimeter star is a triple-double threat on a nightly basis, and Doncic is the impetus for Dallas being a top-10 offense for the last three seasons. The Mavericks take care of the ball, committing fewer than 13 turnovers per game this season, and the Heat are allowing 21 free throw attempts per game this season. Dallas isn’t an elite defense, but Miami projects as closer to average on offense, and the Mavericks can wall off the paint, as evidenced by opponents shooting just 51.1 percent on two-point attempts.

Now, it has set its sights on Heat vs. Mavericks. We can tell you the model is leaning under the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Heat vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? … Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Mavericks spread you should be all over Tuesday, all from the model on a roll on NBA picks!